https://www.elementalstatistics.com/home daily 1.0 2021-09-26 https://www.elementalstatistics.com/our-team daily 0.75 2021-07-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60e39577ca4aa0185ca6c61f/1625543208949-X0060ZJJ3B2S150RTWPI/Susan_L3252.jpg Qualifications - Susan Lubetkin, PhD Tobias Keene, D.D.S. Hailing from Richmond, Virginia, Dr. Tobias Keene brings a bit of unabashed Southern hospitality to all his patients. He moved to Washington, D.C. over thirty years ago as a freshman at Ivy College. Right after graduation, he attended World University’s School of Dentistry. Before opening Keene Dental in 1994, he worked for free clinics and some of the finest practices in the District. He is part of the 123 Dental Association and stays up-to-date on the latest dental discoveries. When not striving to keep his patients happy and healthy, he’s enjoys hiking with his family in Rock Creek Park. https://www.elementalstatistics.com/about daily 0.75 2021-07-08 https://www.elementalstatistics.com/areas-of-practice daily 0.75 2022-08-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60e39577ca4aa0185ca6c61f/1625763495546-WSE62U7VO4EANEFHEP73/Screenshot+%2819%29.png Case Studies - Make it stand out This conceptual diagram of the fault tree model of the overall spill risk for diesel along the transportation corridor includes risks from marine barges (Rbarge), tanker trucks (Rtanker), the ferry (Rferry), and storage facility leaks (Rstorage), and transfers between those (Rb x tkr, Rtkr x f, Rst x tkr) and the associated amount of use in each of the three Alternatives (TA1, TA2, and TA3 for each step along the transportation corridor). Not all transfers are shown in this diagram. Risks in yellow were modeled quantitatively for the EIS. The risk in orange were discounted from quantitative modeling after comparison to other spill risk rates. Risks in red were not quantitatively discussed or evaluated in the PLP EIS. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60e39577ca4aa0185ca6c61f/1625855352154-YL3LMOKZ618W172KHNCT/Screenshot+%2821%29.png Case Studies - Make it stand out Graphical comparison of two spill rate estimates for the same hole diameters for the same isolatable segments of the proposed SPOT project on a) a linear scale and b) a log-log scale to allow the individual estimates more visual separation at the smallest spill frequency estimates. If the ERM (2020) and Risknology (2019) estimates for the same isolatable section and hole diameter match, they would fall on the 1:1 line. The more they differ from that line, the less confidence we have in at least one of them. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60e39577ca4aa0185ca6c61f/16864225-9252-47a1-9455-0f87f96a74df/Cook+Inlet+large+spill+probalities.png Case Studies - Make it stand out The a. cumulative expected number of large spills that may occur due to oil production in Cook Inlet and b. probability that at least one large spill occurs increase as more projects are approved. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60e39577ca4aa0185ca6c61f/1625863520258-BNXJ6JVVLKC84VHSC07G/Screenshot+%2825%29.png Case Studies - Make it stand out Comparison of probabilities of at least one spill of a hazardous material from trucks from a. the ~70 mile roadway from SH-55 to the proposed mine site and b. the transportation corridor estimated using the reagent origins, including the ~70 miles shown in part a. Solid curves are for Alternatives 1, 3, and 4. Dashed curves are for Alternative 2. The blue curves use the 2009-2017 average spill rate, the orange curves use the 2017 spill rate, and the green curves use the spill rate cited in EPA (2014). The black horizontal lines separate the probable, possible, and unlikely probability ranges, based on USACE (2012). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60e39577ca4aa0185ca6c61f/1625682578123-CZETBXCCPDE42B8MO7WC/MPB+Bercha+math+problems+diagram.jpg Case Studies - Make it stand out Fault tree models for oil platforms and pipelines in the Arctic used by BOEM and my critiques https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60e39577ca4aa0185ca6c61f/1625863040548-0WBJ6DXS6G71U0SD9SGD/Bear+salmon+waterfall+July+2019.jpg Case Studies - Make it stand out Photo by S. Lubetkin, July 2019 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60e39577ca4aa0185ca6c61f/58266e36-88fe-467a-92e2-bb850ca3c9d5/Mining+retrospective+report+cover.png Case Studies - Make it stand out The full report is available. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60e39577ca4aa0185ca6c61f/1625861939457-TL0HJVU87KHAQN965QQ0/Screenshot+%2823%29.png Case Studies - Make it stand out The North Slope of Alaska has a long history of spills of multiple types of substances, including crude and refined oil, extremely hazardous and hazardous substances, and process water. a. There were more than 9,900 spills related to the oil industry recorded on the North Slope from 1995-2020 in size and substance categories not considered in the spill risk analysis. b. Excluding these spills means the proposed ITR ignored a spill record of more than 72,400 barrels. https://www.elementalstatistics.com/contact-us daily 0.75 2021-09-25 https://www.elementalstatistics.com/reviews-1-1 daily 0.75 2022-05-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60e39577ca4aa0185ca6c61f/1632604944711-AR4LPWLSF6EPFL1IFCZ6/Polar+bear+cub+2014.jpg Client List - “This was amazing work on such a short turnaround – thanks again!” — Patrick Lavin, attorney at Defenders of Wildlife https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60e39577ca4aa0185ca6c61f/1632605834207-B5XZZSROC4WOP6W50847/4621693252_e4e73f5d2c_o.jpg Client List - "This is amazing!! Thank you so much – very thorough and so speedy. I really appreciate all your work." — Brettny Hardy, attorney at Earthjustice https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60e39577ca4aa0185ca6c61f/1632604391712-NSES9EZF3DTYJ9G59ZA8/Cascade_Idaho%2C_Ultra_Cool_Salmon_-_cropped.jpg Client List - “We hired Susan to help review a proposed gold mine. Susan was able to wade through mountains of information, crunch the numbers, and identify significant flaws with mine plan. And most importantly, she wrote a clear and convincing report that the lay person can understand.” — Bryan Hurlbutt, attorney at Advocates for the West https://www.elementalstatistics.com/press daily 0.75 2022-05-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5ec321c2af33de48734cc929/1618497259178-6XJGK9GR6YAVBQL5L519/20140301_Trade-151_012-2.jpg Press https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5ec321c2af33de48734cc929/1607694583486-2PQT0LQ193RL7MCB6DX4/20140228_Trade+151_0046.jpg Press https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5ec321c2af33de48734cc929/1607694644871-IC85FNH781UNZSZEGHDR/Aro+Ha_0428.jpg Press